September 2012 Banlist Discussion

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September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by canasian » Tue May 29, 2012 12:57 am

Several reasons I'm choosing to make this thread now:
-All the YCS' for the format are done, all that's left between now and September are the WCQ's and Worlds which, with the exception of Frog FTK, have historically had very little impact on the banlist (see Agents).
-Hopefully by getting it out there somewhat early (we are only 2 and a half months away from the official release) we keep all the discussion of banlists contained to one thread between now and August, which keeps things cleaner for Mystic.
-I suspect, from the way Tewart's articles from last week were written, that the banlist is 90% finalized with the only wiggle room being for a case of some degenerate combo deck cropping up and ruining Worlds (which, if it does happen, will most likely be Final Countdown which is a very easy problem to solve).

My Predictions based primarily on Tewart's articles:

Banned:
Future Fusion

Limited:
Inzektor Dragonfly
Red-Eyes Darkness Metal Dragon
Rescue Rabbit
Mystical Space Typhoon

Semi-Limited:
Lonefire Blossom

Unlimited:
Lumina, Lightsworn Summoner
Necro Gardna
Shien's Smoke Signal

Remarks:
-Lumina, Necro, and Smoke Signal would all be Unlimited by the same logic that Semi-Limited them, which basically amounted to "sure, why not?" They continued to do next-to-nothing when moved from 1 to 2, and as Tewart said in his article Konami believes the list should be as short as physically possible.

-Lonefire Blossom follows the same path as the above 3 took last format, although I doubt they'll take it all the way to 3 because of Symbol of Heritage which is what got it Semi-Limited in the first place. If Konami were actually looking to make the most balanced game possible the correct move would be to simply ban Symbol of Heritage and Unlimited Lonefire and Dewloren, but no one in Konami's R&D is that logical.

-Rabbit and Dragons are both taken down a notch because of the "bandwagon effect" Tewart referenced as the core of their banlist decisions. Just for a moment pretend that they aren't the most played because they're legitimately the best.

-Inzektors take a hit (albeit not the correct one) because they're overtaking the OCG, which Tewart confirmed is more important than the TCG in the making of the banlist. I'm skeptical on this one because a) Tewart had the nerve to imply that Inzektors weren't impacting the meta in the TCG and b) Konami of Japan really like Inzektors. They could be their new Blackwings, which would get them at least another year or so before KoJ gets bored of them and murders the deck with vengeance.

-Mystical Space Typhoon limited because the subliminal message in Tewart's articles was that the banlist can and will push new product, and there's a little card in GAOV called Night Beam which at the moment isn't played much here in the TCG, but would easily be a 3-of staple without triple MST in the picture.

-I kept the changes brief in following the mold of the March banlist, but they could easily move 50 cards if they decided they want to radically change the format.

-Cards that should see list movement and Konami might consider: Wind-Up Hunter, T.G. Striker, The Agent of Mystery - Earth, Book of Moon, Reborn Tengu (which could be Unlimited after a format of being Semi'd purely to prove that they can move TCG-exclusive cards), Final Countdown, Chain Strike, Ultimate Offering, Torrential Tribute. All of which should be obvious which direction they'd move in.

-Cards that should see list movement that Konami most likely won't consider: Black Luster Soldier - Envoy of the Beginning, Blackwing - Gale the Whirlwind, Magician of Faith, Tsukyomi, Time Seal, Monster Reborn, Mind Control, Heavy Storm, Destiny Draw, One Day of Peace.


For now I think discussion should focus on what will happen rather than what should happen. Considering how thin the possibilities of what will happen are given this new-found level of transparency (granted we learned barely anything we didn't know in the first place), we can discuss ideal lists once discussion of actual possibilities has run out.

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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by Ducky610 » Tue May 29, 2012 1:38 am

I can imagine they will ban Future Fusion (its a free win for dragons) but i dont see them limiting the key monster for all top 3 decks so soon... don't they historically take longer to do that? semi-limit maybe...

Edit: although if they do limit redmd I could see them squeezing more money out of Queen Dragun Djinn for players that still want to use dragons; same for inzektors and Inzektor ladybug and Hornet...
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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by canasian » Tue May 29, 2012 1:47 am

Ducky610 wrote:I can imagine they will ban Future Fusion (its a free win for dragons) but i dont see them limiting the key monster for all top 3 decks so soon... don't they historically take longer to do that? semi-limit maybe...
When the banlist officially drops in September:
Inzektors will have been in the OCG for 9 months and the TCG for 7.
Rabbit will have been in the OCG for 13 months and the TCG for 10.
Chaos Dragons will have never been relevant to Japan (because Lightpulsar Dragon's release coincided with the release of Verz Ophion) and will have been relevant to the TCG meta for 5 months. MORE IMPORTANTLY: Red-Eyes Darkness Metal Dragon is on the list to hit Hieratic OTK almost as much if not more than it is there as a hit to Chaos Dragons. Hieratics will have been in the OCG for 6 months when the banlist takes effect.

Compare to, in the past:
Frog FTK was hit after less than 3 months of relevance in the TCG and no play at all in the OCG.
X-Sabers and Infernities were hit after 4 months in the TCG, and 7 months in the OCG for Infernities.
Machinas were hit (not through an actual hit to the deck but in the Unlimit of Cyber Dragon and Limit of Monster Reborn, both of which were fairly detrimental to the deck) after 6 months in the TCG and 8 months in the OCG.
Six Samurai were hit after 4 months in the OCG and 17 days in the TCG.
Fish FTK was hit before it even had an opportunity to do any notable damage.

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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by Ducky610 » Tue May 29, 2012 1:52 am

canasian wrote:
Ducky610 wrote:I can imagine they will ban Future Fusion (its a free win for dragons) but i dont see them limiting the key monster for all top 3 decks so soon... don't they historically take longer to do that? semi-limit maybe...
When the banlist officially drops in September:
Inzektors will have been in the OCG for 9 months and the TCG for 7.
Rabbit will have been in the OCG for 13 months and the TCG for 10.
Chaos Dragons will have never been relevant to Japan (because Lightpulsar Dragon's release coincided with the release of Verz Ophion) and will have been relevant to the TCG meta for 5 months. MORE IMPORTANTLY: Red-Eyes Darkness Metal Dragon is on the list to hit Hieratic OTK almost as much if not more than it is there as a hit to Chaos Dragons. Hieratics will have been in the OCG for 6 months when the banlist takes effect.

Compare to, in the past:
Frog FTK was hit after less than 3 months of relevance in the TCG and no play at all in the OCG.
X-Sabers and Infernities were hit after 4 months in the TCG, and 7 months in the OCG for Infernities.
Machinas were hit (not through an actual hit to the deck but in the Unlimit of Cyber Dragon and Limit of Monster Reborn, both of which were fairly detrimental to the deck) after 6 months in the TCG and 8 months in the OCG.
Six Samurai were hit after 4 months in the OCG and 17 days in the TCG.
Fish FTK was hit before it even had an opportunity to do any notable damage.
True I didn't think about the OCG haha; my mistake
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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by Wrave » Tue May 29, 2012 1:53 am

I am surprised that Konami hasn't nuked Chain Burn completely before now. I see MST going back to Semi UNLESS we get a reprint of Night Beam before then. I can see them banning Gale because it is one of the last splashable Tuners (I highly doubt KoJ is smoking that much funny stuff to Semi it). Reborn isn't the powerful card it once was as while it is game changing, it is no longer "top deck Reborn and you win".

So Hunter (Limited), Earth Forbidden, BoM Semi-d, Tengu Unlimited, Countdown and Chain Strike Limited or Forbidden, Torrential Limited?
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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by canasian » Tue May 29, 2012 2:07 am

Wrave wrote:I am surprised that Konami hasn't nuked Chain Burn completely before now.
To be fair, Chain Burn hasn't seen any notable results from around the Demise period until YCS Brighton, and didn't get consistent tops until this format.
Wrave wrote:Reborn isn't the powerful card it once was as while it is game changing, it is no longer "top deck Reborn and you win".
2 out of the 3 top decks put 10,000 or more damage on the board when they topdeck Reborn -_-
And any other deck has a high chance of turning around duels/stealing wins they did not deserve because of Monster Reborn.
Wrave wrote:I can see them banning Gale because it is one of the last splashable Tuners (I highly doubt KoJ is smoking that much funny stuff to Semi it).
Gale isn't even a particularly powerful card anymore (running over <2500 isn't an accomplishment at all by today's standards). Banning it would be the dumbest most pointless move on any recent banlist. Of course if they did move it it'd be to Semi-Limited first, but I honestly don't believe the card would see significantly more play at 3 than it does at 1.
Wrave wrote:So Hunter (Limited), Earth Forbidden, BoM Semi-d, Tengu Unlimited, Countdown and Chain Strike Limited or Forbidden, Torrential Limited?
Oh, I get it now. Your post was an attempt at trolling.

But just in case it wasn't:
Hunter banned, frankly limiting it does nothing but force people who were running sub-optimal builds to make their deck better.
Earth could go to 2, or even 3. Master Hyperion is nothing compared to what Chaos Dragon currently does, and OCG will have Verz Ophion to protect them.
Countdown and Chain Strike should both be banned if they want to hurt their respective decks without making the correct move which would be to ban One Day of Peace.
Torrential to 3, it's the most balanced and effective Trap card in the game.

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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by XYZ Dragon Cannon » Tue May 29, 2012 2:12 am

Wouldn't mind seeing Hornet go.
Rabbit, although it is still good, isn't as good now that prio is gone, so even at 2 would be good.
Judgement Dragon, I don't know why the moved that to 3 again.
Wind-up Hunter, although they arn't as popular anyway, he needs to go.
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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by Wrave » Tue May 29, 2012 2:18 am

It wasn't.

My logic with the Tuners being Forbidden is that Konami wants to push Xyz even further.

One Day of Peace was just poor making.

And if you would have told me even 2 years ago that Torrential would be considered balanced, I would have lol.
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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by Zeronex » Tue May 29, 2012 2:30 am

canasian wrote:Torrential to 3, it's the most balanced and effective Trap card in the game.
You know the gamestate is flawed to a horrible extent that a mass monster removal like Torrential is considered balanced. :?

I'm not disagreeing, mind you. It's just sad to see the game to degenerate into such sackyness.

By saying that hitting Dragonfly is an incorrect move, are you implying that either Hornet and/or Centipede should be hit instead? I leaning more to Centipede getting the hammer.

If they're continuing the Synchro Genocide, I can see Brionac hitting the list.
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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by canasian » Tue May 29, 2012 2:50 am

XYZ Dragon Cannon wrote:Wouldn't mind seeing Hornet go.
Rabbit, although it is still good, isn't as good now that prio is gone, so even at 2 would be good.
Judgement Dragon, I don't know why the moved that to 3 again.
Wind-up Hunter, although they arn't as popular anyway, he needs to go.
I don't think you read Tewart's articles, or at least didn't take from them the important, game-defining portions.

Hunter won't be hit because, according to Tewart in part 1, Wind-Ups aren't widely played. The corollary, as explained in part 3, is that even if a deck is exceedingly powerful, if no one is playing it then it doesn't need to be hit.

Judgment Dragon falls under the same category as Hunter to an extent, and before he took that position he was in the place of Lumina and Smoke Signal. They didn't want the list to be too long, so they cut the cards that were doing the least damage. Judgment Dragon still has not been doing any damage, so there's no reason for him to go back on the list according to R&D (they're a bunch of rocket scientists in that damn R&D department, if you didn't notice).

In case you didn't notice, Rabbit is still either the best deck or a close second depending on who you ask despite priority no longer existing in the TCG.
Priority hasn't existed in the OCG since well before the release of Rescue Rabbit, and the Funny Bunny is still seeing play over there.
The deck is a threat and needs to be addressed as such.

Hornet would have to be banned to do anything, and even if they do that Inzektors are still a threat because they can just use Ladybug to spam Rank 4's and 5's, and can still make 3's with Hopper even.
Limited Dragonfly is not really ideal but it's the obvious way to go so I consider it sort of representative of the fact that I believe Inzektors will get hit.

I believe the best way to hit Inzektors (and yes I did steal this idea from Jeff Jones, because I do really think it'd be effective) is to ban Leviair the Sea Dragon (which in general should happen because it makes so many cards useless, and is a huge boost to Tour Guide which is confirmed to not be going anywhere) and Limit Inzektor Centipede.
Banning Leviair removes a lot of OTK options, not just for Inzektors but for many decks such as Dark World and Rabbit.
There are 2 reasons Dragonfly+Hornet is so much scarier than, say, Dragunity Leggionaire+Dragunity Aklys. One is that with 3 Centipedes, if you resolve 1 Dragonfly you're guaranteed to resolve the second and most likely the third. The other is that 1 Dragonfly easily leads into 10,000 damage via repeated use of Inzektor Giga-Mantis and Inzektor Sword - Zektkaliber. With only 1 Centipede, you can't repeatedly search Swords and Mantis to make crazy OTK fields, and you also can't loop through all 3 Dragonflies on consecutive turns.

Limited Centipede would leave Inzektors playable, but people would have to experiment and come up with new Inzektors to summon with Dragonfly which is where the smartest, most innovative players would have an opportunity to shine.
Zeronex wrote:
canasian wrote:Torrential to 3, it's the most balanced and effective Trap card in the game.
You know the gamestate is flawed to a horrible extent that a mass monster removal like Torrential is considered balanced. :?

I'm not disagreeing, mind you. It's just sad to see the game to degenerate into such sackyness.

By saying that hitting Dragonfly is an incorrect move, are you implying that either Hornet and/or Centipede should be hit instead? I leaning more to Centipede getting the hammer.

If they're continuing the Synchro Genocide, I can see Brionac hitting the list.
I think even in a more stable format, Torrential could be considered a pretty fair card. It takes a good bit of effort and also some risk to play it to the fullest.
In order to not minus yourself when using it, you have to play Torrential either with your monster row open or with floaters on the field. And when you use it, you generally want to get more than a simple 1-for-1 out of it, so you run the risk of your opponent summoning 1 large monster (such as Thunder King or Stratos) and then never summoning anything else, and simply beating you for game with the monster you conserved your Torrential against.

The difference between hitting Trishula last format and Brionac now is that Trishula was actually seeing play at the time, while at the moment none of the top decks consistently summon Brionac, and if they even run it in their Extra it's either a placeholder or a just-in-case card for Mind Control plays (I mean, it's not even convenient to summon using Effect Veiler).
In keeping with the theme of Konami keeping cards as low on the list as they can go without being overtly harmful to the game, they don't have a reason to ban Brionac right now, so why would they?

[spoiler]By the way, I do know that most of the logic I'm applying here is wishy-washy and self-contradictory. The point is that Konami's logic is wishy-washy and self-contradictory and for now I'm going to play devil's advocate.[/spoiler]

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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by MysticJhn » Tue May 29, 2012 2:59 am

First off, it's crazy to think with a little over 3 months technically remaining in the format, it can be considered "over" already do to having no YCSs left.

I really hope you are right about MST being dropped down to Limited, only because
I would feel like I predicted it back when Galactic Overlord was the next new set.

Near the end of this post I said...
Between this card [Storm] and Night Shot, I feel like Konami is trying to prepare us for MST and Heavy Storm going away again.
They love giving us watered down alternatives when they want something gone.
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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by -thePTguy » Tue May 29, 2012 9:04 am

Earth to 2 or 3 would make me pretty happy.

And yeah, I'm happy that TT is at 2 and wouldn't mind having it at 3.
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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by Wrave » Wed May 30, 2012 2:57 am

I imagine money has to do with it too. Machina Gadget is dirt cheap and so to prevent the bandwagon effect, they need to cancel it out somehow. Chain Burn and Final Countdown are cheap for the most part (Final Countdown in ever meaning of the word).

Konami also likes to nuke a deck every list (Tele-Dad, Lightsworns, Tengu Plants) or attempts to (Blackwings were like a bad cold). I imagine that Inzectors will fall into that "Blackwing" category.

I can see them nuking Chain Burn and Final Countdown big time just to prove the point that they hate Burn and Stall. Forbidding One Day of Peace also slows Empty Jar.

Also why would bringing Tsukuyomi and Time Seal back be a good idea? Magician of Faith maybe to help with the Book of Spells archetype.
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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by canasian » Wed May 30, 2012 8:14 am

Tsukyomi is, like what I said about Gale earlier, simply behind the times. Flip effects are too slow to be relevant, and running over big guys isn't a huge deal.

Time Seal would be pretty powerful and a staple at 1 but it wouldn't be game-defining at all. Without Tsukyomi there is no loop, and even if the loop does exist with 1 Time Seal and 1 Tsukyomi that's pretty situational and easy to break. I don't think it'd be a very common for decks to be based around that combo.
By itself, Time Seal would be a strictly less powerful Trap Dustshoot except that it'd reward you for playing it correctly, rather than just flipping it up as soon as you draw it.

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Re: September 2012 Banlist Discussion

Post by Arrowblaze » Wed May 30, 2012 8:17 am

I dislike Time Seal. It's like Judgment in the sense that it totally locks your opponent for 1 turn.
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